Recreation study
Senate seats
Who holds a Senate seat and how a state votes for president can tell different stories.
An independent recreation of a New York Times graphic. This study follows the 14-state selection, 2024 margin groups, and Cook Political Report ratings in the reference, not live election ratings.
Each labeled circle represents one state in the reference.
01 / 05
One circle, one state
These are the 14 states included in the original Senate graphic. Following the same states through different views helps separate who holds a seat from how the state voted for president.
02 / 05
Which party currently holds the seat
There are now 14 competitive states. This was not the battleground map most would have predicted at the beginning of the election cycle. It includes several states that are traditionally solidly Republican, such as Texas, Alaska and Kansas.
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Keep track of each state
The circles spread into rows, keeping the incumbent-party groups at the top. Each connecting line follows one state into the next view.
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How each state voted in 2024
The past does not predict the future, but a state’s previous presidential performance is a key indicator of its partisan leaning. To capture a majority, Democrats must prevail in at least two states that Mr. Trump carried by at least 11 percentage points.
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How the races are leaning
Political analysts at the Cook Political Report and advertising decisions by both parties suggest there are seven tossup states, but the map is constantly shifting. Republicans can keep the majority if they hold four of the tossup states.